Greece Again

WIll the Greek government vote a budget that crushes the Greeks yet again?  Greece is predicted to fall short at Euro 2.5-billion this year, so cuts have to be made.  Yet the Greek government is hanging on with a margin of just four seats, and the Greeks are no longer willing to make any more sacrifices on the alter of EU austerity.  If a budget does pass that includes the required cuts, expect massive riots. 

 

Can Europe afford the social unrest and will the paymaster-in-chief, Angela Merkel give just a wee bit of ground? I think a confederation, like the Zollverein, with a dual currency, may prove a better solution.   

Answering the Mail

How much attention do you feel Russia deserves in considerations about the EU's future? Russia seems at once a divisive factor, with regard to energy policy, and a unifying factor, due to shared suspicion. Until the EU can come up with a common energy policy, Russia is able to divide and rule in this regard. Germany and Russia are linked directly now via Nordstream. I wonder how this will play out in future with regard to Britain and US antipathy towards Russia and Germany's compromised position.

 

Questions regarding the 'Great Game' are always intriguing, but in thinking about the great game, we often fall into a trap of arguing today's solutions in  terms of  the problems of the past.  Normally we equate this argument with generals who seek to solve problems of past wars without taking into consideration that either technology or tactics have changed.  Witness France and its Maginot Line, or the United States playing at 'shock and awe' in Vietnam.  Simply did not work.  By the same token, we simply cannot view the present economic or political situation in terms of past   analogies.  So when viewing the nature of Germany's relationship with Russia on energy dependency, perhaps we should take in the following:

 

1).   Realism would argue that we have to view the relationship between Germany and Russia in terms of their respective national interests.  While the relationship has been a bit testy in the past, we must now consider that both administrations, led by Merkel and Putin, are here for some time.  So to my mind, we should see some stability and a bit of long-term planning beginning to emerge. 

2).   Although Merkel's political mentor was Helmut Kohl, and although Helmut Kohl regarded a 'United Europe' with a 'United Germany' at its heart, of the utmost importance, I believe that Merkel will now place German interests above EU interests should they diverge.  

3). To my mind we are seeing the beginnings of a fundamental sea change within international politics.  Two issues, one political and one economic, should be considered: a). Iran is making all the right noises about coming in from the Cold.  If this new direction becomes a reality, then consider that the United States and Iran may once again become friends.  Immediately, Iran, and to a lesser extent Iraq, will begin exporting a lot more oil.  And (b). At the same time, fracking for natural gas in most of the world is becoming a reality and the United States, far from being a net importer of energy, will now become a net exporter of energy.  When these two issues are combined, the net effect will be a huge drop in energy prices.  I expect the price of oil to drop to $60.00 per barrel.  Perhaps OPEC will be able to limit the damage to $80.00 per barrel, but in any event, the drop in energy prices will act as a huge tax break over the OECD countries and we can expect exponential growth once again.  Even Italy, with its myriad political problems, may pull through. 

4). If I may return to point (2), the current view of Europe is that the European Union is of paramount importance, and that Germany would never play outside the Union.  But consider this.  This summer, a German mandarin asked me why London became and remains the financial capital of the world.  Is it because Britain is a nation of shopkeepers?  Or perhaps because the Brits like bacon bits?  No the answer is far more mundane.  London can talk to the Chinese and the Americans on the same day.  The Americans cannot do this and it places New York at a distinct disadvantage. If we move from the financial to the production structure, then we are moving into the realm of global trade.  The German mandarin argued that Germany now found itself in a unique position because of high-speed rail.  The time taken to deliver goods by sea from Shanghai to Hamburg is 31 days.  From Shanghai to New York around 34 days.  Can you imagine the effect of a delivery time by rail from Shanghai to Hamburg of 34 hours, with onward shipping to New York in a few days?   

The effect would be astounding and it would make Berlin the new capital of the world. Germany would become the world's trading hub and the peripheral states of the European Union would be just that; the peripheral states of the European Union, with little to no importance to Germany.  On the contrary, Russia and the old states of the Soviet Union would become far more important as they develop the new Silk Road between China and the world.  The change in economic emphasis would mean that Russia would no longer be the core supplier of Germany's energy, rather it would be a core partner in a new deal based on infrastructure.  Also economic growth created by  new direct investments steel, locomotives and rolling stock would be enormous.  Thus, I am arguing that the relationship between Germany and Russia would be fundamentally different.  

 

To conclude, we have to ask ourselves why the United States has opened negotiations with the European Union on a far-reaching free trade agreement.  Are we set to witness a new economic reality shortly? 

 

 

Four Issues

​This week I feel that I have solved three of four concerns that I have been wrestling with on the future of the European Union.  The first turned on legal issues that have been addressed by the German Courts.  Appears that the German Courts are moving in a manner that allows for more space to address the future direction of the EU and where we shall see the locus of power in the future.  It would appear that the US model of a Federal system is no longer considered the only model and the courts are going to influence the debate on the EU going forward.  A treatment on the legal future of the EU is thus absolutely necessary.  Second, when looking at Balassa, Haas, Hettne et al, the notion of an economic solution was implicit in the way a region developed.  But now I am not so sure.  These theories have to be reworked and possibly Robert Mundell's work, despite its flaws, on Optimum Currency Areas may provide the necessary direction I am looking for to rework the economic arguments on the nature of the EU going forward. Then third, I have found very interesting material on European culture that is underpinned by nationalism and the relationship of the member states to the EU.   The political leverage, either for convergence or devolution is quite fascinating, and takes me to my core problem right now.   This problem turns on the nature of political unrest within Europe and where this may lead.  There is no doubt in my mind that poor economic performance is leading to solid gains in Greece by the radical right, and we should see more of this within those  states that also begin experiencing economic decline.  Will this change dissipate if Europe can rebound?  Is the link real?    Is the economic structure within the EU governing political change, or can we flip the argument and maintain that political structures are causing the economic malaise on the periphery?  I simply don't know how to formulate the connection.  My concern now is that France will soon become the sick man of Europe.  To my mind, this will result from a problem of France's competitiveness within the Euro area.  Thus it appears that we shall witness more problems in Europe due to the straightjacket maintained by the single currency.  Will France balk and jump away or stay the course? How will this effect the political trajectory towards Balassa's final solution of a single federated Europe? The alternative, France buys into Cameron's notions of political and economic devolution. Something will have to give.

Some Thoughts on Regionalism Theory

In the modern era, Europe provides easily the most famous and most successful example of regionalism at work. Early theories of regionalism were almost entirely Euro-centric, and many of the ideas, which first emerged in response to the European experience are still influential today. In particular, Haas’s concept of functional spillover represents a watershed in the development of the literature, and as we will later argue, is still of central importance today.

Haas is generally regarded as the ‘father’ of a theory called neofunctionalism. His theory (and its theoretical antecedent, functionalism) arose out of the European integration experiences in the early post-war years. The idea of a united Europe has historical roots stemming back much further than the 20th Century, but in its modern form, it began as the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1951, which expanded to become the European Economic Community (EEC) through the Treaty of Rome in 1957.

The original theory of functionalism was designed as a normative explanation for the establishment of mechanisms such as the ECSC to ensure peace by moving beyond nationalism. According to Mitrany, its best-known advocate, “the task facing us is how to build up the reality of a common interest in peace… not a peace that would keep nations quietly apart, but a peace that would bring them actively together; not the static and strategic view of peace, but a social view of it… We must put our faith not in a protected but a working peace.”[1]  Functionalist theory claimed that co-operation by governments in the creation of technical task-orientated welfare agencies (such as the WHO and Disarmament Organizations) could unite people across borders and “sidestep still blazing national loyalties”.[2] Simply put, people were meant to learn to think in non-national terms because of patterns in technical co-operation.

While functionalism was limited to the formation of non-political institutions, neofunctionalism built on it to eliminate the artificial separation of politics from economics by including the notion of ‘functional spillovers’. Writers such as Haas, Lindberg and Schmitter,[3] using the framework of functionalism and building on the theories of writers such as Karl Deutsch,[4] suggested that increased trans-border exchanges and co-operation in technical areas (such as the production of coal and steel) would lead to increased transnational interdependence and in turn create functional spillovers in other realms, essentially allowing the integration process to be driven under its own steam. [5] Haas noted that “certain kinds of organizational tasks most intimately related to group and national aspirations can be expected to result in integration even though the actors responsible for this development may not deliberately work towards such an end.”[6]

Accordingly, initial co-operation on the creation of common institutions in non-political (and hence non-controversial) policy areas is, over time, not only deepened, but also widened to include the realm of other connected policy areas. The deliberate design of institutions is seen as the most effective means for solving common problems, and these in turn are instrumental for “the creation of functional as well as political spill-over and ultimately to a redefinition of group identity around the regional unit.”[7] Importantly, governments of member states are locked in to the integration process and they have little room to maneuver. The structural and functional implications of trans-border exchanges inevitably coerce national governments into greater degrees of co-operation, coordination and integration.[8]

Neofunctionalism spawned a large volume of literature, and work on regional integration became highly prominent in well-established US journals such as International Organization. The emphasis on functional pressures, growing interdependence and the significance of non-state actors stood in sharp contrast to the dominant orthodoxy of realism in American International Relations and laid some ground for the development of contemporary international political economy (IPE).[9] Elsewhere, the initial successes in Europe were imitated by a number of comparable attempts in the Middle East, Africa, the Americas and the Pacific, and “the world was indeed filled… with proposals for NAFTA, PAFTA, LAFTA and evermore.”[10] By the end of the 1960s, however, it became clear that the regionalist challenges had failed to live up to their promise. There had been few tangible results outside of Europe, and in Europe itself, the credibility of the theory had suffered irreversible damage with the ‘Empty-Chair crisis’ of 1965/66, initiated by de Gaulle’s adamant refusal to proceed with certain aspects of integration he deemed contrary to French national interests, despite the benefits that accrued to French farmers through the Common Agricultural Policy. The integration process was dominated by a downturn in economic circumstances and subjected with apparent ease to stalling by political elites. In 1975 Haas published his now famous The Obsolescence of Regional Integration Theory where he declared that regional integration theory was “obsolete in Western Europe and obsolescent – though still useful – in the rest of the world”.[11] Haas conceded that neofunctionalism had failed to take into account the importance of government action in any moves towards regional integration in Europe and had failed to recognize the new interdependence patterns transcending regions in other areas. Other critics suggested that neofunctionalism had exaggerated both the expansive effect of increments within the economic sphere and the gradual politicization effect of spillover.[12]

Regionalism and the End of the Cold War

A number of changes in the international political economy of the 1980s saw a worldwide resurgence of interest in regionalism, concurrent with the rise of neoliberal economic theory as the dominant new force in the global economic system and changing global power relations. This second-wave of regionalism was given added impetus with the end of the Cold War and the new wave of democratization which swept through Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

The demise of early regional initiatives had, by the early 1980s, “opened greater space for the promotion of new co-operative ventures at the regional and sub regional level”.[13] In developing countries, strategies of import-substitution were replaced by structural adjustment programs reflecting a shift towards outward-orientated policies as a panacea for development in an increasingly interdependent global economic system. Earlier attempts at regionalism had been seen as a way to enhance collective security and social welfare, but the growing pace at which national economies were becoming interdependent on a global scale brought about a fundamental shift in the way regionalisation was conceived. The apparent dangers of marginalization from world markets led to an added sense of vulnerability for many developing countries, and the fashioning of new and more effective regional organizations was seen as one way of combating the dangerous isolation in which many found themselves.

As the issue of economic security became an increasingly important element of international relations, the unveiling of a reinvigorated European plan in 1986 for a Common Market by 1992 and the beginning of negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Canada in the same year indicated to many developing countries that regionalism could serve as a supplement or even as an alternative to the multilateral system of GATT.[14] This represented a major policy shift by the United States, which had, until the 1980s, emphasized the promotion of free trade through multilateralism.[15] NAFTA was a watershed in the sense that it signaled a move by the world’s largest economy away from mere tolerance towards acceptance of regionalism as an effective trade-liberalizing strategy. Just as the first wave of European integration had inspired imitations around the world, so the revival of European regionalism and the creation of NAFTA saw the beginnings of negotiations on groupings such as the Arab Maghreb Union, the Andean Pact, Mercosur, ASEAN and the African Union.

The revival of regionalism was cemented by the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the 1980s. With the end of an international bipolar system, the idea of the region was thrust onto the centre stage in international politics. The relaxation of East-West tensions brought about an improved atmosphere for international co-operation and a newly enhanced status for bodies such as the UN. In many ways, the logic of regional co-operation was regarded as a natural outgrowth of the processes at work on the global stage.[16] The end of bi-polar tensions also meant that regional security issues for much of the developing world were no longer dominated by questions of balance between the old superpowers. In the post-Cold War world, developing countries were no longer assured of their value as bargaining chips and were forced to develop new strategies to procure aid, trade and security.

Market-Based Theories of Regionalism

Since the 1980s, regional integration theory has been largely dominated by a focus on its effects on trade, financial flows and economic integration, as well as an increasing concern over its relationship with forces of economic globalization and multilateralism. The debate over this aspect has been of particular concern to economists, especially with regard to the patterns of interaction between regional and global trade. For many, the growing prevalence of ‘economic regionalism’ defined as “the design and implementation of a set of preferential policies within a regional grouping of countries aimed at the encouragement of the exchange of goods and/or factors between members of the group”[17] is the central feature of regionalism’s ‘second-wave’. Theories on regional market integration (often grounded in the tradition of neoliberal economics) thus play a central role in the contemporary debate on regionalism, as they focus their attention on the formation of preferential trading agreements commonly termed ‘trading blocs’, the most common form of regional organization in the modern international system. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a growing international consensus on the appropriateness of neoliberal strategies for regional success, falling under the umbrella of what is known as ‘open regionalism’, a form of market integration in which regionalisation efforts are explicitly outward-looking, in contrast to the fortress-like mentality which governed earlier efforts. 

One of the most important questions asked by economists about the new regionalism is how regional integration should be modeled and whether the associated potential gains for member states is welfare-creating or welfare-decreasing. The classic early work on Custom Unions by Jacob Viner provides a good starting point. [18] Viner argued that the elimination of intra-area tariffs and the stimulation of regional industries through the imposition of a common external tariff would result in trade creation along the principle of comparative advantage as countries specialize around efficient industries, and trade diversion from lower cost exporters to the region. In other words, trade is created by the switch from a high cost external producer to a low-cost regional producer, and is diverted by the shift from a low-cost external producer to a high-cost regional producer. [19] The welfare effects of trade creation are positive, whereas the effects of trade diversion are negative, suggesting that the desirability of regional trade agreements largely depends on the circumstances. Subsequent authors have shown that Viner’s conclusions have limited validity, yet his concepts remain highly influential in policy debates.[20]

Balassa, writing at the same time as Haas and the neofunctionalists, and borrowing from their concept of functional spillover, suggested that regional integration occurs in a linear progression, with the completion of each stage being a necessary condition for the successful implementation of the next. Free market forces set into play at one stage are anticipated to have a spillover effect to the next, so that its implementation becomes an economic necessity. The associated caveat is that because economic integration has its own costs, resources will be misallocated if a more advanced stage is embarked upon before a lower stage is completed.[21] Balassa’s work continues to inform popular views of integration studies, and is still the model of choice for institutions such as the World Bank with regard to looking at levels of economic integration. [22]

Preferential or Free Trade Areamembers reduce or eliminate barriers to trade in goods (and increasingly services) among members, but each member is free to maintain different barriers against non-members. This latter characteristic requires members to develop rules of origin to prevent imports from third countries from being transhipped through the member country with the lowest tariffs.

Customs Unionmoves beyond a free trade area by establishing a common external tariff on all trade between members and non-members. Customs unions typically contain mechanisms to redistribute tariff revenue among members.

Common Marketdeepens a customs union by providing for the free flow of factors of production (labour and capital) in addition to the free flow of outputs.

Economic and Monetary Unionmembers implement a common currency and common macroeconomic policies.

Total Economic Integration – consists of the unification of monetary and fiscal policies, along with the creation of a supranational authority that has the power to enforce decisions.

Much of the work on market integration, however, suggests that success in realising these gains is predicated on a number of conditions. Firstly, integration must appear to be relatively costless to participating members at the outset, making the planning of initial steps very important. Negative perceptions will arise when it is perceived that costs and benefits are being distributed unequally among regional partners, specifically, when the most developed country or countries in the region experience an overwhelmingly disproportionate amount of the gains. They become ‘poles of development’, while the less developed countries in the region become ‘poles of stagnation’.[23] Planning for economic integration needs to take this scenario into account, and often may need to introduce some kind of redistributive mechanism to allow all member countries to experience similar relative gains from regionalisation.

Another requirement for effective integration is that there must be some convergence in national economic objectives, and both tariff and non-tariff barriers must be reduced in order to encourage higher levels of intra-regional trade.[24] In cases where regional members produce little that neighbouring states want to buy, the potential gains from lowered barriers to trade are minimal, as has been the case in Africa, where the failure of integration schemes has been blamed by many authors on the low levels of intra-regional trade present between members in the first place. Other problems for integration schemes in the developing world have been the minimal level of industrialisation in neighbouring countries, which leaves few opportunities for integrating factors of production into common productive processes,[25] the existence of significant non-tariff barriers to trade and investment (such as inefficient bureaucracy, licensing and payment systems, corruption, the potential for government expropriation[26] and transport difficulties) which remain even after formal intra-regional trade barriers have been reduced or eliminated.[27] There is also the growth in the importance of capital flows, which has made the integration of financial markets an additional priority since the original formulation of customs union theory.[28]

 Finally, economists are unclear on the issues of optimal geographic size of regional groupings and the desirability of higher forms of regional monetary and policy integration. The argument is made that externalities and economies of scale mean that a jurisdictional scale larger than the borders of individual member countries allows for enhanced ability to provide public goods. On the other hand, the likelihood of significant diseconomies of scale means that the optimal area should definitely be smaller than the world economy. The level of integration will largely determine where the optimal area of a regional grouping will situate itself in between these two extremes. For example, analysts argue that economic diversity will favour a monetary union. Shocks are neutralized as they hurt one part of the region while favoring others.[29]

When speaking of the new wave of regionalism, the economic school defines it as having primarily taken the form of what has been called ‘open regionalism’.  This is a form of market integration which extends and applies the central assumptions of neoliberal economics at the regional and global level.[30] Unlike the old regionalism, which was protectionist, inward-looking and relied on collective strategies of self reliance, the new regionalism is open, outward-looking and inclusive.[31] It prescribes that policy should be directed towards the incorporation of the region into the world economy, a goal best achieved through the elimination of obstacles to trade and investment. Emphasis is placed on export-led growth, and a greater priority is given to extra-regional, rather than intra-regional trade. Thus integration is consistent with “an outward-oriented strategy that promotes incentives that are neutral between production for the domestic market and export”[32]. In line with neoliberalism, the main concern of open regionalism is with economic efficiency or, more broadly, with ensuring economic growth through participation in global wealth creating activities.[33]

Regional relations are driven by trade and investment liberalisation, with market forces being the prime movers, decision-makers and shapers of such regions. Predictably, the main beneficiaries of global market liberalization (internationally mobile capital, exporters who balk at restrictive trade policies, local industrialists which are competitive with overseas producers, and domestic financial capital positioned to gain by increased access to foreign markets) are often highly supportive of regional initiatives which take this form.

Open regionalism then, views regionalism as a means where neoliberal economic policies can be implemented, and its appeal lies in its ability to allow countries to integrate more fully into the global economy through the twin processes of trade and investment. This is in line with the ‘stepping stone’ argument that regionalism represents an important step on the road to global economic integration. This process is driven by the private sector and market forces, hence “neoliberal regional integration shifts emphasis from an imagined historical and political community to a spontaneous, self-selected and self-interested market-driven community of states and non-state actors.”[34]

Problems for Market-based Models of Regionalism

“Concerned as it is with purportedly universal laws of development, neoliberal theory posits that, in principle, the same rules of economic development can be applied across the board from the most developed to the least-developed countries. As such, the theory is overly mechanical and represents a slot-machine approach to regionalism. Taking an individualist approach, it is silent about deep structural inequalities, especially the qualitative aspects of underdevelopment lodged in the blockage of highly inegalitarian social systems. In addition, largely unnoticed is the contradiction between the openness of neoliberal regionalism and its anti-regional thrust. In so far as open regionalism strives for a world market and hooks directly into the global economy, it can skip over regional integration… What is more, neoliberals’ vision of market relations as a frictionless world of shared meanings, the uncontested adoption of the ideology of capitalism, is structurally blind to the patterns of domination and hegemony.”[35]

Market integration and associated theories of open regionalism have tended to be the predominant forms of the new regionalism, during the 1990s, and have dominated the debate in and among major regional organisations such as MERCUSOR and ASEAN during the 1990s. As a manifestation of neoliberalism, however, these kinds of models have come under fire from analysts for their tendency to over-emphasize the potential benefits of neoliberal market reform without taking into account the often detrimental effects that rapid liberalisation can produce, especially in developing countries. The literature on the dangers of implementing market liberalisation too early suggests that governments should adopt outward-looking strategies with caution, rather than rushing into them. The tendency of economic globalisation is to transcend territorial states and hence it is unaccountable to elected political officials, or rather, is accountable to unelected market forces.[36] Unlike governments, the market is an impersonal force which cannot be voted out of power because of the harm it causes and while market forces certainly hold the potential for significant gains, it should be remembered that when left to function on their own, they often tend to widen the economic differences between lesser and more developed areas.[37] While authors tend to differ on the degree to which the market or the state should be held responsible for the polarising effects of globalisation, there is general agreement in the post-Washington Consensus era[38] that a major shortcoming of development policy in the 1980s and 1990s was its ‘one size fits all’ approach – the idea that all economies are fundamentally the same, and that a universal set of ‘good’ policies exist for all countries, no matter how big or small.

Another aspect of open regionalism, which is of particular resonance in light of the mixed record of structural adjustment policies, has been raised by Maljuf, who points out that the tendency of open regionalism to encourage North-South agreements is often motivated by more than the prospect of economic gains. An explicit objective of developed countries is to lock-in Washington-Consensus-style policies through legally binding rule-based commitments in the negotiations on a North-South FTA. Once integration has occurred, it anchors structural reforms which are too costly to reverse, supposedly encouraging risk-averse investors as to the permanence of the developing country’s commitment to free-market principles. While this is generally perceived to be a positive benefit of regional integration, it should be noted that North-South RTAs also bring the risk of locking in a single approach to economic development that has proved, in the case of many developing countries, not always to produce the expected results.[39] Also, these agreements could seriously limit the policy space available to developing countries to define and implement development policies in the future.

Furthermore, open regionalism and economic regionalism theories in general fail to take into account the importance of political co-operation when it comes to implementing successful and welfare-enhancing regional integration. To reiterate an earlier point on the necessary conditions for effective market integration, some form of political will is necessary before the regional process is started. The main engines where that process is supposed to be driven are trade, the free market and the private sector, but if they are unaccompanied by the support of governments, the regional project is doomed to failure. The process of integration which open regionalism describes – resting heavily on the appeal of a regional economy of scale to local and foreign firms – requires both the maintenance of the rules governing such an arrangement between constituent countries and the harmonisation of domestic policies in order to increase the stability and attractiveness of the regional marketplace for private sector activity.[40] In other words, regionalism is not a question of setting loose the private sector and hoping for the best. As Hettne has pointed out, “the difference between regionalism and the infinite process of economic integration is that there is a politically defined limit to the former process.”[41] Thus it is important to identify actors and motives outside of the economic sphere that have an interest in regionalisation.

For regional partnerships in the developing world, and especially in light of this volume, a particularly resonant criticism of open regionalism is that the problems of disproportionate gains are often ignored. One characteristic of new regionalism is that many regional organisations tend to be dominated by one partner, to which the majority of gains in the regional project accrue. A very real danger of unbridled open regionalism is that periphery members become subject to increased marginalisation and vulnerability to political and economic manipulation from the regional hegemon.  As the literature on market integration suggests, some form of redistribution is necessary, but is often very difficult to decide on. This reinforces the point that explicit political negotiations and a regional political consensus are a necessary condition for successful regionalism.

New Regionalisms and ‘Regionalism from Below’

Critical theories of regionalism arose during the 1990s to account for a number of perceived shortcomings with existing mainstream theory. Arguably the defining work of this new approach to regionalism (from here called simply the ‘new regionalism’) was developed during a United Nations University/World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) research project under the leadership of Björn Hettne.[42] At the time, it was felt that regional theory needed to go beyond the narrow goals of creating region-based free trade regimes or security alliances, and that regional theory needed to take cognisance of the contradiction between the dominant logic of integration by developing countries into a single global market, and the reality of the difficulties faced by such countries in doing so. The assumption by those involved in the project was that in dealing with a ‘new regionalism’, factors other than trade and investment mattered and the end result was an eclectic and multifaceted approach in which the political ambition of establishing regional coherence and identity seems to be of primary importance.[43]

The new regionalism de-emphasises the use of free trade blocs and insists that for regional trade to occur, co-operation, not just competition, is required. It might seem strange that the word ‘co-operation’ needs to be highlighted in a new theory of regionalism, but the reality is that dominant notions of open regionalism have tended to push the need for competition (in the form of increased trade and investment) while ignoring how this might sit with the requirement for political co-operation. According to Thompson, it is this seeming contradiction between the necessity of competition and co-operation within regional entities that new regionalism attempts to analyse.[44]

With regards to the relationship between globalism and regionalism, Hettne suggests that the former should not be merely viewed as a ‘stepping stone’ in a linear process towards the logic of an integrated global market as suggested by open regionalism. In some cases, regionalism may be a reaction to the dictates of the global marketplace which might very well represent a way of halting or reversing the process of globalization in order to safeguard a degree of territorial control and diversity of cultures.[45] Regionalism can thus act as both a counter-process to globalization (a form of deglobalization where there is an attempt to bring its processes under control) or as a road to globalism of some sort.[46] Some accounts even view regionalism as a potential vehicle for a new kind of world order. Amin, for example, effectively views it as “a way to renew the perspective of global socialism… Let it just begin to develop and powerful social forces will rally to it from all regions of the world.”[47] This, however, is quite a radical view, and most other authors are somewhat less inclined towards such left-wing views. Almost all contributors to the new regionalism agree, however, that while regionalism is not just a ‘stepping stone’ it is not necessarily a ‘stumbling block either’. Rather, the two processes of globalization and regionalism are occurring simultaneously, and have deep implications for the future of the Westphalian state system.[48]

Mainstream market-based theories of integration include more or less fixed and static definitions of regions and states. In contrast, the new regionalism questions both the importance of the state and accepted notions of ‘regionness’ and there is nothing to suggest that regions will be unitary, homogeneous or discrete units. There are no ‘natural’ or ‘given’ regions, but these are “constructed, deconstructed and reconstructed – intentionally or non-intentionally – in the process of global transformation, by collective human action and identity formation.”[49]

Importantly, the new regionalism acknowledges the critical role of civil society and other actors such as business communities, transnational associations, environmental and women’s groups and informal networks. The idea is that cultural and social considerations come into play in regional projects – for example, a significant pressure for regionalism exists in the form of cross-border flows such as ethnic group transactions that transcend international borders, migratory movements and trading on the black market, which may create new or deepen old senses of regional cultural identity.[50] This means that regionalism is promoted by both top-down and bottom up processes. As Hettne notes “the implication is that not only economic but also social and cultural networks are developing more quickly than the formal political co-operation at the regional level.”[51] This approach has a greater affinity with cognitive theories of political dynamics, and paves the way for a dynamic and voluntaristic view of policy-making with less or little emphasis on rationalistic assumptions or determinism. Regionalism would thus be explained not as a result of structural or institutional factors, but on the contrary as an instrument for changing existing international structures and institutions to create new identities, opportunities and alliances.[52]

There is also a tendency in the approach to emphasise the weakened capacity of the state, a consideration of particular salience in Africa where states have often been powerless and ineffective in supporting local citizens. This extends the idea about the potential political role of civil society as a means for the weak and the poor to protect themselves,[53] and the implication is that any form of regional initiative needs to take such forces into account when planning for future integration.

[1] D. Mitrany, A Working Peace System: An argument for the Functional Development of International Organisations  (London: National Peace Council, 1946), p.51.

[2] Ibid, p.21.

[3] E. Haas, The Uniting of Europe (London: Stevens, 1958); also see Ernst Haas, “International Integration: The European and the Universal Process,”  International Organization Vol.15, Summer, 1961; Ernst Haas, Beyond the Nation-State (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1964); Ernst Haas, “Technocracy, Pluralism, and the New Europe,” in Joseph Nye, ed., International Regionalism (Boston: Little, Brown, 1968); Leon Lindberg, The Political Dynamics of European Integration (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1963); Ernst Haas and Philippe Schmitter, “Economic and Differential Patterns of Political Integration: Projections about Unity in Latin America,” International Organization, Vol.18, Autumn, 1964.

[4] K. Deutsch, S. Burrel and R. Kann, Political Community in the North Atlantic Area (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1958).

[5] Haas was the first to conceptualise integration as resulting from an institutionalised pattern of initially non-political interests, played out within existing international organisations. However, Dieter Wolf has suggested that a major theoretical foundation on which neofunctionalism’s arguments were based is Emil Durkheim’s (1893) notion of functional differentiation as the central source of modernization. Durkheim traced the development of modern societies to increasing sectoralization, segmentation and specialization, which not only increases the efficiency of social and economic processes, but also increases the mutual interdependence of each of those sectors. Industrialized capitalist societies in search of efficiency gains are thus forced into co-operation and coordination by the power of functional differentiation. Neofunctionalism then, makes its contribution by effectively extending Durkheim’s notion of functional differentiation by asking what would happen if those social and economic processes transgressed state borders. See also Dieter Wolf, “Agent-Structure Debate and Theories of European Integration: Bridging the Gap and Tunnelling the Mountain,” Paper prepared for the ECSA-Canada Fifth Biannual Conference Bigger and Better? The European Union, Enlargement and Reform (Toronto: ECSA, May 31st  – June 1st 2002).

[6] E. Haas, Beyond the Nation-State, p.38.

[7] L. Fawcett and A. Hurrell, eds., Regionalism in World Politics. Regional Organization and International Order (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), p.59 as cited in Söderbaum, (2005), p.6.

[8] D. Wolf, “Agent-Structure Debate and Theories of European Integration: Bridging the Gap and Tunnelling the Mountain,” p.7.

[9] S. Breslin and R. Higgot, “New regionalism(s) in the Global Political Economy: Conceptual understanding in historical perspective,” Asia Europe Journal, Vol.1, 2003, pp.168-169.

[10] J. Bhagwati, The World Trading System at Risk (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), p.7.

[11] E. Haas, The Obsolescence of Regional Integration Theory (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1975) as quoted in Rodrigo Tavares, “The State of the Art of Regionalism: The Past, Present and Future of a Discipline,” UNU-CRIS e-Working Papers W-2004/10, 2004, p.9.

[12] W. Mattli, “Explaining Regional Integration Outcomes,” Journal of European Public Policy, Vol. 6:1, March 1999, p.5.

[13] L. Fawcett, “Exploring Regional Domains” International Affairs, Vol. 80, 2004, p.431.

[14] Some authors, most notably, Jagdish Bhagwati, have identified this change as the major factor in the revival of regionalism. The reasons for the US policy change have been analyzed in depth in Bhagwati’s chapter in Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagariya, eds., New Dimensions in Regional Integration (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993) and Walter Andrew Wyatt, “Regionalism, Globalization and World Economic Order,” in Louise Fawcett and Andrew Hurrell, eds., Regionalism in World Politics: Regional Organization and International Order (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995). Others have argued that US policy was, and still is, primarily centered on the promotion of multilateralism, and hold up US support for the WTO and its repeated insistence that multilateral negotiations should form the cornerstone of efforts to lower global trade barriers as evidence.

[15] J. de Melo and A. Panagariya, eds., New Dimensions in Regional Integration, p.25.

[16] L. Fawcett and A. Hurrell, eds., Regionalism in World Politics: Regional Organization and International Order, p.19.

[17] W.A. Wyatt, “Regionalism, Globalization and World Economic Order,” p.78.

[18] J. Viner, The Customs Union Issue (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1950).

[19] W. Mattli, “Explaining Regional Integration Outcomes,” Journal of European Public Policy, Vol. 6:1, March 1999, p.31-32.  See also Margaret Lee, The Political Economy of Regionalism in Southern Africa (Cape Town: University of Cape Town Press, 2003), p.20 and Bertil Oden, “Regionalisation in Southern Africa,” World Development Studies 10 (Geneva: UNU/WIDER Project, 1996), p.6.

[20] For a more detailed analysis of Viner’s arguments and the subsequent challenges to his theory, see Panagariya de Melo and Dani Rodrik, “The New Regionalism: A Country Perspective” in de Melo et al, eds., New Dimensions in Regional Integration.

[21] B. Balassa, The Theory of Economic Integration (London: Allen & Unwin, 1962), pp.112-147. See also Shaun Breslin, et al, eds., New Regionalisms in the Political Economy, p.13, and Frederick Söderbaum, “Rethinking the New Regionalism,” p.8.

[22] See the recently released World Bank report “Meeting the Challenge of Africa’s Development,” World Bank, September 7th 2005. As the report notes, however, “the international experience with Regional Trade Agreements is much richer than this simple taxonomy suggests. NAFTA and other more recent agreements establishing free trade areas contain provisions governing domestic labour standards and other regulatory issues, which one traditionally associated with agreements for deeper integration. On the other hand, many free trade agreements exclude important categories of goods (notably agriculture) from trade liberalization. In some cases customs unions still levy tariffs on trade between members.”

[23] M. Lee, The Political Economy of Regionalism in Southern Africa, p.21.

[24] P. de Melo and D. Rodrik argue that this requirement largely explains why the prospect of integration with rich neighbors was so unattractive to developing countries when they still believed in import substitution, and why it has become more desirable as they have opened up their economies. It also explains why multilateral institutions may be inherently more difficult to sustain than regional institutions in light of the underlying diversity of national interests. See Panagariya de Melo et al, eds., New Dimensions in Regional Integration, p.188.

[25] C. Clapham, “Regional Integration in Africa: Lessons and Experiences,” pp.17-29.

[26] The problem of ‘creeping expropriation’ (where the host country establishes laws and regulations that deprive investors of the value of their contract) has been identified as a major disincentive to investment in developing countries. Such measures include local equity obligations, profit remittance controls, forced sales, export performance requirements, forced partnerships, local content requirements, licensing restrictions, financing restrictions, restricted markets, tax discrimination, export quotas, supervision of transfer prices, and the prevention of local acquisition. See Charles Lipson, Standing Guard: Protecting Foreign Capital in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985), pp.162-182, Michael Duerr, The Problems Facing International Management (New York: Conference Board, 1974), p.5, Stephen Kobrin, “Foreign Enterprise and Forced Divestment in LDCs,” International Organization, Vol.34, 1980, pp.65–88. Note that not all investment is equally vulnerable to government-level opportunism.

[27] B. Oden, “Regionalisation in Southern Africa,” p.7.

[28] This is a problem for traditional regional integration theory which has been raised by Dieter and Higgot. As they point out, Balassa’s traditional five step approach was first articulated in the 1960s, when tariffs, as barriers to trade, were much more important than they are forty years later. No link was provided for management of monetary policy and financial flows in the first three levels of integration, a glaring shortcoming in today’s era of highly mobile capital and global financial markets. Some efforts have been made to address what they see as a “major theoretical and policy deficiency.” See H.Dieter R. Higgott, “Exploring alternative theories of economic regionalism: From trade to finance in Asian co-operation?” Review of International Political Economy, Vol.10, No.3, August 2003, pp.430–454.

[29] W.A. Wyatt, “Regionalism, Globalization and World Economic Order,” p.81.

[30] Keet has noted that open regionalism has been adopted by the IFIs as a useful way in which to extend country specific structural adjustment programmes at the regional level. The approach represents “an extension of the long-established formulae informing IMF/World Bank structural adjustment programmes (SAPs and the World Banks' regional strategy is, in fact, explicitly designed to extend national SAPs into regional structural adjustment programmes and, in the process, secure the former with and through the latter). In this scenario, intra-regional, inter-regional, and external/global relations should be guided by pre-set commitments to move consistently towards ‘generalised’ (internal and external) liberalisation and rapid ‘open integration’ into the global economy. See Dot Keet, “Counteractive Forces against Regional Development Strategies in Africa,” AIDC Regional Briefing, 1994. Accessed online at: http://www.tni.org/altreg/index.htm.

[31] P. Mistry, “The New Regionalism: Impediment or Spur to Future Multilateralism?” in Bjorn Hettne et al, eds., Globalism and The New Regionalism, p.123.

[32] B. Oden, “Regionalisation in Southern Africa,” p.18.

[33] H. Nesadurai, Globalisation, Domestic Politics and Regionalism: The ASEAN Free Trade Area (London: Routledge, 2003), p.237.

[34] O. Ideheru, “New Regionalism, States and Non-State Actors in West Africa,” in Andrew Grant and Frederick Söderbaum, eds., The New Regionalism in Africa (Burlington: Ashgate, 2003).

[35] J. Mittelman, “Rethinking the ‘New Regionalism’ in the Context of Globalization,” in Bjorn Hettne et al, eds., Globalism and the New Regionalism, p.44.

[36] Ibid, p.36.

[37] J. Haarløv, Regional Co-operation and Integration within Industry and Trade in Southern Africa (Aldershot: Ashbury, 1997), p.30.

[38] As suggested by Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents (New York: W.W. Norton, 2003).

[39] See for example, Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents, and Ricardo French-Davis, “Reforming the Reforms of the Washington Consensus: For Achieving Growth and Equity,” (CSIS, June 23rd 2003).

[40] N. Phillips, “The rise and fall of open regionalism: Comparative reflections on regional governance in the Southern Cone of Latin America,” Third World Quarterly, Vol. 24, No.2, 2003, pp.217–234.

[41] B. Hettne, “Globalization and the New Regionalism: The Second Great Transformation” in Bjorn Hettne, et al, eds., Globalism and the New Regionalism, p.9.

[42] See, in addition to Hettne et al, Globalism and the New Regionalism:

Björn Hettne, Andras Inotai and Osvaldo Sunkel, eds., National Perspectives on the New Regionalism in the North (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 2000a);

Björn Hettne, Andras Inotai and Osvaldo Sunkel, eds., National Perspectives on the New Regionalism in the South (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 2000b);

Björn Hettne, Andras Inotai and Osvaldo Sunkel, eds., The New Regionalism and the Future of Security and Development (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 2000c) and

Björn Hettne, Andras Inotai and Osvaldo Sunkel, eds., Comparing Regionalisms: Implications for Global Development (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2001).

[43] Op. Cit., p.xvi.

[44] C. Thompson, “Regional Challenges to Globalization: A Southern African perspective,” New Political Economy, Vol.5, No.1, 2000, p.43.

[45] Op. Cit., p.xx.

[46] Ibid, p.6.

[47] S. Amin, “Regionalisation in Response to Polarising Globalization,” p.83.

[48] Op. Cit., p.xx.

[49] F. Söderbaum, “Rethinking the New Regionalism,” p.14.

[50] J. Mittelman, “Rethinking the ‘New Regionalism’ in the Context of Globalization,” p.197.

[51] B. Hettne, “Globalization and the New Regionalism: The Second Great Transformation,” p.10, as quoted in Okechukwa Ideheru, “New Regionalism, States and Non-State Actors in West Africa,” p.35.

[52] H. Hveem, “Political Regionalism: Master or Servant of Economic Internationalization?” in Bjorn Hettne et al, eds. Globalism and the New Regionalism, pp.93-94.

[53] F. Söderbaum, “Rethinking the New Regionalism,” p.10.

Two Households

Two households, both alike in dignity………

                                                      William Shakespeare

Two directions, both implacable, now vie for the hand of Europe.  Whether to strengthen the institutions currently in place to form a ‘Federalist’ new Europe, or whether to devolve power back to the nation states within the European Union and thus create some form of ‘Confederation’.   Both are highly politically charged ideals.  Which direction will Europe take? 

Commentary

My thanks to all of you who have commented on my recent musings.  Appears that you all prefer to write directly to me, so this defeats the idea of a conversation.  Ah well.  What is fast becoming apparent is that you are split into two camps:  one which believes that Euroland does not have a reverse gear and thus will continue down the path to a closer union; and the other, which believes in some form of breakup.  

I am now going to concentrate on two issues that I believe have to be addressed in order to tease out a truth here:  First, the ​notion of Benedict Anderson's 'Imagined Communities' to understand where the idea of nationalism fits into the EU; and second, how the EU can possible deal with differing inflation rates among its member countries and still survive. I also want to assess whether Europe can be considered as an Optimal Currency Area, but I shall rely on Radu for this who has greater expertise in this area than me. 

The European Union - New Thoughts

The European Union

When I last wrote about the problems of the European Union and their implications for a new book, my mind was focused on the debate between economics and politics.  I was still deeply immersed and influenced by the arguments that were advanced by Ernst Haas on neo-functionalism and the federalists within Europe.

I have now read David Cameron’s ‘EU speech at Bloomberg’, delivered on Wednesday January 23, 2013.  He has a point of view that any thinking person simply has to engage. Put simply, David Cameron has argued that the first purpose of the European Union was to secure peace, and this he argues, has been achieved.  Today, he maintains, the main, overriding purpose of the European Union is different: not to win peace, but to secure prosperity.  

Given the continuous economic problems the EU is still experiencing, it would appear that the future of the European Union lies in fixing its economic problems and this influenced my original thoughts on whether to concentrate on economics as espoused by Haas or a political solution, which in essence would strengthen the institution of the EU itself by creating a federation with all the implications that this would entail.   Now I feel there are three options:

1).  Continue with more of the same, but as Cameron argues, “More of the same will just produce more of the same – less competitiveness, less growth, fewer jobs.”

2). Strengthen the ‘federalist’ component by creating a central bank, a single market, a single currency, a federal parliament, together with a new central government on the lines of either Germany, Switzerland or the United States of America.   This would immediately stop the economic rot, but is this the only solution?

3).  Create a confederation of states that devolves power back to the states within the European Union; a European Union that respects the rights and individualism of each state while strengthening the notion of a single market without necessarily adopting a single currency.

I think that this argument sets up the analysis for the book in a tighter framework.  I am happy to pursue both courses of action intellectually to see whether we can tease out through debate what would be a better way to increase competitiveness and growth within the EU.

I am still wedded to the notion that the intervening variable is nationalism (with a small ‘n’) as how the states will eventually integrate into a new European Union will be done at the national level.  Some states within Europe may even split into smaller entities.  I am persuaded that Belgium will definitely move in this direction.  The Catalans and Scots are also firm candidates in this regard, but the focus on how the nation states of Europe will eventually form a perfect union will remain in the hands of the traditional states themselves.  

Nationalism as a concept is difficult to define, and will remain the focus of my intellectual pursuit for the time being. 

Thoughts on the book's spine

The European Union:  50 Years After the Elysee Treaty

Chapter I

Introduction:  The origins of the EU; Congress of Vienna and the Concert of Europe:  Whither nationalism?  Some really cool history.

Chapter II

The theories behind the concept of Regionalism:  Functionalism V Federalism;  Balassa’s edifice;  etc.etc.

Chapter III

What happened?  Explain the financial melt down.  Give me numbers.

Chapter IV

The way out?:  Kaynes V Hayak:  What of German economic dominance:  Does inflation really matter?  Summarize the issues within the EU

Chapter V

Two arguments:  1).Romania as a metaphor for deindustrialization.  2). The German response for keeping the Union together. The pros and cons of staying the course. 

Chapter VI

A turn to politics.  German ‘Oder Democracy v David Cameron’s  old EFTA.  Wither the periphery in all this?  How will it all end up?  Nationalism as the new force?

Chapter VII

Conclusion

The EU

What are the origins of European integration, and how far back in time do we need to travel to pick up these first stirrings. Do we have to at all?   I'd like to begin this conversation by taking us back to the Congress of Vienna as this will allow a theoretical discussion on what motivated the nation states at the time to develop a 'Concert of Europe'  What was the origin of the idea of the balance of power?  How did European leaders apply its principles in actual practice?  If we fast forward to today, can we argue whether the notion of a balance of power still applies within the European region?  Is the balance now a balance based on financial muscle and do the nation states of Europe feel it necessary to balance against Germany's new-found power?  Is the EU now centralized sufficiently to prevent the states on the margins from spinning away? Does the very economic union created by the EU encourage the latent nationalism that simmers below the surface in Catalonia and Scotland? Will the Lega Nord  fianlly win independece for the North from the South in Italy?  To my mind, any discussion on concepts such as the balance of power must include a treatment on nationalism and all its ramifications.  This will be the point of departure for this book.