Four Issues

​This week I feel that I have solved three of four concerns that I have been wrestling with on the future of the European Union.  The first turned on legal issues that have been addressed by the German Courts.  Appears that the German Courts are moving in a manner that allows for more space to address the future direction of the EU and where we shall see the locus of power in the future.  It would appear that the US model of a Federal system is no longer considered the only model and the courts are going to influence the debate on the EU going forward.  A treatment on the legal future of the EU is thus absolutely necessary.  Second, when looking at Balassa, Haas, Hettne et al, the notion of an economic solution was implicit in the way a region developed.  But now I am not so sure.  These theories have to be reworked and possibly Robert Mundell's work, despite its flaws, on Optimum Currency Areas may provide the necessary direction I am looking for to rework the economic arguments on the nature of the EU going forward. Then third, I have found very interesting material on European culture that is underpinned by nationalism and the relationship of the member states to the EU.   The political leverage, either for convergence or devolution is quite fascinating, and takes me to my core problem right now.   This problem turns on the nature of political unrest within Europe and where this may lead.  There is no doubt in my mind that poor economic performance is leading to solid gains in Greece by the radical right, and we should see more of this within those  states that also begin experiencing economic decline.  Will this change dissipate if Europe can rebound?  Is the link real?    Is the economic structure within the EU governing political change, or can we flip the argument and maintain that political structures are causing the economic malaise on the periphery?  I simply don't know how to formulate the connection.  My concern now is that France will soon become the sick man of Europe.  To my mind, this will result from a problem of France's competitiveness within the Euro area.  Thus it appears that we shall witness more problems in Europe due to the straightjacket maintained by the single currency.  Will France balk and jump away or stay the course? How will this effect the political trajectory towards Balassa's final solution of a single federated Europe? The alternative, France buys into Cameron's notions of political and economic devolution. Something will have to give.