POL 5032 WEEK IX

Power or Money:  How will European trade and investment flow to Russia given Putin’s petulance in the Crimea and the Ukraine?  Are we seeing a major shift in attitudes, or will Merkel kiss and make up?

Questions:

 a). How would you describe the current relationship between the European Union and Russia?

 b). Will Russia continue to dominate Europe’s gas supply, or are we destined to see a new set of supply chains emerging in the future?

 c).  Will EU/Russian relations degenerate into a new Cold War?

 d). Is Russia just too important as a trade and investment partner for Germany, and will there be a new German/Russian rapprochement?

Writing in the November issue of Foreign Affairs, Robert Legvold, refers to ‘Managing the New Cold War’.  There is no ‘Cold War’ taking place.  Rather Russia is returning back to its future by embarking on a ‘New Imperialism’ that has all the hallmarks of a ‘Hot War’.  Indeed, writing his Discussion Paper for the Centre for European Integration Studies, titled Neighbors and other realities: The Atlantic civilization and its enemies, Professor Ludger Kühnhardt argues:

As for the latest outbreak of Russian imperialism, some argue that this chain of events is apt to usher in a new Cold War. That proposition is wrong – for a very obvious reason: The Cold War has never turned violent except for moments of unrest inside the Eastern bloc. That makes it much unlike the series of events which has followed the end of the Soviet Union in 1990: From Chechnya to Transnistria, from South Ossetia to Abkhazia, from Crimea to Donbass, hot warfare by old and new means has taken place. To be sure, the ideological source of today’s set of conflicts is no longer rooted in past totalitarianism. Instead, it lies primarily in the geopolitical objectives of Russia: Eurasian nationalism has become the source of a new zone of blood, instability and uncertainty at the fringes of Russia. Regionalism by coercion – as President Putin tries to implement with his project of the Eurasian Union – will not work either.

 Given Putin’s belligerence, Kühnhardt further argues that Russia’s leadership has returned to its traditional political thinking – imperial, nationalistic, and aggressive. It is not pursuing a transformation toward Western ways, as had been hoped for a while. Instead, it is embracing a new version of ‘reactionary modernism’ (in the words of University of Maryland historian Jeffrey Herf). Such a peculiar form of modernism is something we have already seen under Nazi rule in Germany in the 1930s. In President Putin’s Russia, ‘reactionary modernism’ is coupled with revisionist aspirations to expand Russia’s sphere of influence on the Eastern borders of Europe. From Chechnya to Transnistria, from South Ossetia to Abkhazia, from Crimea to Donbass, hot warfare by old and new means has taken place.

 So in effect, the Ukraine has become the ‘new Germany’ in the fight between East and West.  It has been culturally divided, economically weakened, socially split and is now the new plaything of the ‘Great Powers’.  Like Germany, throughout history, whether during the 30 Years War, or the Cold War, the Ukraine is now the East-West divide, and the clash of political cultures between European Western civilization and Eastern authoritarianism.

 Russia’s economy has shrunk by two percent in the first three months of this year, according to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.  The first contraction since 2009. Losses as a result of Western sanctions have dented income from some foreign exports by $26.7bn, or 1.5 percent of Russia’s GDP, a figure Medvedev argued ‘could increase several times this year’.  Despite the economic hardship, Medvedev argues that Russia will cope, even if economic conditions deteriorate further.  Thus Russia’s leadership is hanging ‘tough’ despite the economic pressure. 

 So the real issue now turns on two questions:

 1). Is the worst of the war over in the Ukraine; or

 2). Is this the lull before a new storm?

 These questions are very difficult to answer. Mikhail Dmitriev, an analyst at ‘New economic Growth’ a Russian think-tank avers that the roots of Putin’s actions in the Ukraine lie in the Kremlin’s need to solidify its legitimacy after growing discontent that erupted into street protests during the winter of 2011/12.  Thus, the trust of Putin’s policy lies both in the domestic and international realms.

 How has Germany responded? Germany’s Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier appears to be taking the lead for Angela Merkel.  Not only is Steinmeier embarking on a new Review of its Foreign Ministry, but also German Foreign Policy.  Speaking on March 16th 2015 at ‘Carnegie Europe’ in Brussels, Steinmeier stressed that German Foreign Policy ‘must be European’. He also stressed that his review of German Foreign Policy had to begin with a simple question, “What if anything, is wrong with German foreign policy?” He answered that Germany had to manage two things at once, “Improving our crisis resilience and strengthening international order.”  He added on the Ukraine crisis, “ Our greatest strength in this crisis has been and continues to be our ability to act jointly.”

 Thus in looking at German/Russian relations, we can argue a number of theoretical points:

 1).  Collective Security is no longer a serious contender to keep the peace between Europe and Russia.  We are fast reverting to the old game of a Balance of Power between two rivals contesting border areas with a cultural divide.

 2).  Security, either through NATO or perhaps new European structures, will increasingly dominate the discourse in Europe as it rebuilds its armed capability. 

 3).  The new weapons of economic sanctions do not seem to be telling on the Russian economy, but this notion could be premature and sanctions may yet bite.

 4). Germany’s citizens are by and large against German involvement in international affairs.  Nevertheless, Germany is, through its Foreign Policy Review, forcing its citizens to change.  How this change takes place, and how Germany pulls the European Union into the street fight with Russia, will largely determine how Europe develops. 

 There is a new reality.  The European region, acting as a regional entity, is fast emerging on the international stage as a Realist player.